(Translation from Hebrew: Hanan Leshnovolsky)
The fantasized “Israel” and the struggle against it were used as a tool by regimes to unite the sections, tribes, communities and the peoples they ruled. But today the masses are not buying anymore that lie, which is tagged, not for good, with the old regimes. The masses always knew that this struggle is artificial and fake, but they needed to devote themselves to the governing anti-Israeli fantasy. Nowadays it is not bothering them anymore. They have a more vital intimidation like survival. In front of us there are ten rare tulips with a raising price tag.
There is an effect in the rarity law of economics: Removing an item off the market creates an immediate value. Its price will rise. During the 17th century in Holland, the upper class wanted to transform the tulip from a regular flower into a social and economical status icon. They made the flower rare and almost impossible to get. By doing this they were able to create so called “Tulip Mania”, which means the tremendousness for the tulip. A single tulip value was higher than its value in the weight of gold.
The greater is the quest, the greater is the tulip’s value. From a simple flower it became a social-economical phenomenon, a status grade, a condition, a declaration. This is what means “The tulip effect”. And now it is our (Israel) turn: We experience the “Tulip Effect”.
Quietly, almost without a notice, increasingly now, twining, wriggling between the walls the “Tulip Effect” is growing around Israel. It is an essential and vital process, which we haven’t yet possessed through our history. As much as in a spell, Israel is now disconnecting from the Arabic Middle East and its value is leaping higher. The more the Arabs riots are developing, the more the violence is spreading, the more is increasing Israel’s value, day by day. It is a spell since our conflict is melting in front of our eyes. It is vanishing without even noticing it. It is squelching for those who claims that Israel is the Middle East conflict root cause, the problem.
Why is that a historical process?
1. As the huge waves of riots, that will increase and develop, the Arabs don’t have any more time for Israel, As it happened in Iraq after Saddam Hussein. Those are not just simple defined countries; those are tribes against tribes, high class elite against the oppressed lower class, communities against communities, Shiites against Sunnis, establishment against establishment, peoples against peoples, sections against sections, organizations against organizations, radical Islam against the rest while all that is crumbed in front of our eyes.
Will the Egyptian sections have the time for Israel, or the Libyan tribes, or the Tunisian parties, or other countries on their way to crumble? They will be busy among themselves for decades. If reformists will ascend, the communal-tribal crumble will resist. If the political Islam will ascend – the reformists will resists and so will be the cycle of protests, riots, murdering and revenge. Since today nothing is any more stabile and who has the power and time to deal with Israel? This is the paradox: indeed great anti Israeli forces will rise in the Arab world, but the internal turbulence of the internal enmity will keep them busy more than the Israeli problem.
Hence this is not the real overthrow, but the vanishing of Israel as a tool, a function, as the bonding glue. The imaginary “Israel” and the “struggle” against it were used as a tool by the regimes to unite the sections, tribes, communities and peoples under their governing. But today the masses are not buying anymore that lie, which is recognized, not for its good, with the old regimes. The masses knew always that this struggle is artificial and fake, but were enforced (by brainwashing and power) to obey the anti Israeli illusion. Iraq of Saddam Hussein was the anti Israeli spearhead, just to hide the dictatorship governing of Sunnis on Shiites. Nowadays, who has time for Israel in Iraq? There is no need in “Israel” (as an issue) because the Shiite majority is already governing. As more as the fakeness in the Arab countries is collapsing, the lower is the need to use “Israel”. Israel was the Arab scale of fakeness. It was the glue, and that glue is no more bonding like in the past.
The Israeli-Arab conflict will become distant from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
2. The automatic support for the Palestinians is expected to be lower now. Who will be interested in them? In the past, the official Arab media used the Palestinians as a tool, a kind of a scarecrow. Now, who has the time for them? This should worry the Palestinians. Saddam was their great patron, so is Gaddafi and Mubarak. But who has the time at the moment in Iraq, Libya or Egypt for the Palestinians? They are defined as trouble makers, as a luxury which doesn’t bother anyone nowadays. The more the conflict with Israel will become minor, the less will be the support for the Palestinians.
3. The exposure. Since half a year we could peep on the real Middle East via WeekyLeaks documents and now we are facing it in real. The region is bothering about Iran, the political Islam and the economy. But what about the (Israeli-Arab, Israeli-Palestinian) conflict/s? It is clear that the Arab world already accepted Israel and the proof is the “Arab Peace Plan”. The purpose of it was to bridge a bit between the artificial usage of “Israel” as an imaginary enemy and the reality. So the reality of WeekyLeaks is the reality in the field. Where is that fakeness still remaining? In those countries where the riots virus didn’t reached there, Syria (is already under heavy protests and riots), Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Palestinian Authority. But much more is in front of us. There is no need any more in WeekyLeaks; the Arabic Middle East was revealed.
4. So, in front of our eyes, the Israeli-Arab and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict are minimizing, shrinking. It can be determined with high confidence that it is not the heart of the Middle Eastern conflict. Three huge conflicts broke out and those are not related to us (Israel) any more. The first is the economic-social-tribal. The second is the big conflict between Shiites and Sunnis. And the third is between the political Islam and the Arab nationalism. Those three will keep busy the Arab world for decades. We (Israel) are a peewee compared to the inner Arab enmity. The strait of destiny: Europe tried to overthrow on us (Israel) that conflict, but now it is falling on them, with the North African anarchies and accelerating emigration towards it.
5. The “regional superpowers” Iran and Turkey. Everything looks now different, even if Iran will get a nuclear bomb; it isn’t pointed against Israel at all, but to threaten the Sunnis and to protect the regime from the world. All is changed. Israel is no more the bonding glue; it is not a valuable function. The Iranian regime tried to attach the internal riots to Israel – but no one is buying it anymore, and Iran faces problems of marketing the hatred toward Israel as an ideology. It is interpreted in the region not as fakeness but as an escape; not as strength, but as a weakness. So is about the Turkish regime. From now on it will be difficult to relate everything to Israel, because now it is well known that the claim is artificial. Both regimes, the Iranian and the Turkish, were left naked of their self-legitimacy. Israel fled away from them.
6. While Israel is captured as an island of stability, security, interesting and western, the regimes and Arab societies around us (Israel) are doing the job for us. They are violent, non stabile, dangerous. This is the conclusion of every TV watcher around the world. Israel’s enemies are inventing it from the very new beginning, and this is the best explanation we could expect. The relation towards Israel is changing. It is no more the problem but the solution. Refinement fakeness was masking the anarchy of the Arab world till now, the violence, the hypocrisy and the aggressiveness. Now all that is vomited out. Napoleon said once: “I never disturb enemies for self hanging”.
7. It is true that the world’s expectations from Israel are higher, but today it is drawn as a solid point of human rights, constitutional and governing by law. While thousands are massacred in the entire Middle East the process will just get bitter and bitter, the birth of constitutions in Egypt by the slaughter of the governing military junta regime, and so they vanish. So did the UN against Israel? Goldstone (regrets his report)? The UN human rights organizations, which Libya was a leading member? Ha, human rights are a relative business. Suddenly, everything is getting dominant colors in the Middle East. In Egypt that is ruled by the military junta regime, in Libya where people are massacred, in Yemen where they disappear, or Tunisia, Bahrain or Kuwait, they are simply shot to death. it is speechless about the violent oppression in the countries the riots not yet arrived.
8. The price hike effect: The more the stability in the Arab space vanishes – Israel becomes a stability icon. The more the rights vanish – Israel becomes a temple of individualism. The more the tribal a communal behavior leaps, the Israeli unity is emphasized. The more the regional economy withers; Israel’s is an astonishing one. The more the Middle Eastern scale lowers, Israel’s is rising. That effect should open for us (Israel) a unique opportunity of a complete diplomacy throughout the world and Israel's legitimacy. It is an opportunity.
9. A preference tough question: Regional stability, but an endless bothering with Israel? Or an Arabic chaos, while no one has really the time and cares about Israel? I know well my preference.
It is a spell. Quietly, almost without noticing it, it is growing, twining, developing – “The tulip effect” around Israel.
This article was translated intentionally for the foreign audience to read Guy Bechor's brilliant analysis about the recent events in the Middle East.
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